Download Adversarial Reasoning: Computational Approaches to Reading by Alexander Kott, William M. McEneaney PDF

By Alexander Kott, William M. McEneaney

That includes techniques that draw from disciplines reminiscent of synthetic intelligence and cognitive modeling, opposed Reasoning: Computational techniques to studying the Opponent's brain describes applied sciences and functions that tackle a vast variety of sensible difficulties, together with army making plans and command, army and international intelligence, antiterrorism and household safety, in addition to simulation and coaching structures. The authors current an outline of every challenge after which speak about methods and purposes, combining theoretical rigor with accessibility. This finished quantity covers purpose and plan attractiveness, deception discovery, and approach formula.

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As we can see, the construction of the AII model is a process of identifying potential adversarial goals based on what the enemy believes about the Blue forces and the Red themselves, then generating possible actions that can be carried out to achieve these goals based on their capabilities and history movements. Human factors can be modeled by or show their impacts through the Axiom or Belief variables in the model as we shall see later. 4). It includes several steps: Take inputs (observables, currently inferred adversary goals, intelligence, and user feedback) as evidence and infer the new goals; use the new information as evidence to reason about the potential adversarial actions and present them to the user; update the model according to the environmental inputs, reasoning results, and user feedback; and get ready for the next cycle.

2 shows a causal diagram illustrating the relationship between achieving a military objective and having the necessary vehicles and weapons to do so. In this example, the only known way the opponent can achieve their objective is to attack. An attack can be brought about through appropriate weapons and transportation. Motorized vehicles can meet the transportation needs but they have a secondary effect of also causing fuel consumption. , cutting their supply lines), one can prevent their ability to attack and neutralize their ability to achieve their objective.

The tactic with the highest probability of accounting for the actual observed behaviors is selected as the opponent’s intent. It is not necessary for all the effects to be observed to determine the most probable cause. Normally, much of the information is missing or incorrect. However, in a probabilistic approach, observations that are missing or incorrect cause performance to degrade but not break the system. Further, once an explanation is inferred, the causal links can be followed forward to determine what the missing values could be.

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